The Green Silk Road: Net Zero-Emission Investment Trends Reshaping Eurasia in 2025–2026

## A Record Year for Global Clean Energy Investment The macro backdrop is unambiguous. According to BloombergNEF, global energy transition investment reached a record **$2.3 trillion in 2025**, up 8% from 2024 — the highest figure ever recorded. Asia accounted for the largest share of this capital, with China alone deploying over $800 billion. While growth has moderated from the 27% surge seen in 2021, the absolute scale of investment continues to set new records year after year. Solar photovoltaic technology now accounts for half of all clean technology investment globally, while electric vehicles and grid infrastructure round out the top three categories. Critically, the World Resources Institute notes that 65% of countries improved their energy transition performance in 2025 — a sign that the transition is broadening beyond its traditional strongholds in Western Europe and East Asia. ## Central Asia: The Emerging Frontier Perhaps the most significant development of the past twelve months has been the accelerating opening of Central Asia to international clean energy capital. For decades, the region's vast renewable energy potential — Kazakhstan alone has an estimated 1.8 terawatts of wind and solar capacity — remained largely untapped, constrained by outdated infrastructure, opaque legal frameworks, and the gravitational pull of Russian and Chinese capital. That picture is changing rapidly. In April 2025, the inaugural **Central Asia–EU Summit** in Samarkand elevated relations to a strategic partnership, with the European Union announcing **€12 billion in investments** through its Global Gateway initiative, with clean energy at the centre of the agenda. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has been a driving force: in January 2026, it announced nearly **$2 billion invested through 120 projects** in Central Asia and Mongolia in 2025 alone. Just this week, the EBRD announced a further **€5.9 billion investment programme** focused on Uzbekistan's emerging markets — the largest single commitment to the region in the bank's history. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan stand out as the primary destinations for this capital. Kazakhstan's Carbon Neutrality Strategy estimates investment needs of approximately **$610 billion** to redirect capital from fossil fuels to green sectors by 2060. Uzbekistan, under President Mirziyoyev's cautious liberalisation programme, has resolved long-standing border disputes with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, unlocking the possibility of cross-border energy grids and integrated regional power markets that were previously unthinkable. ## The Geopolitical Dimension: A "Third Force" Opportunity Understanding the investment landscape along the Silk Road requires understanding its geopolitics. Russia's influence in Central Asia is declining — accelerated by the war in Ukraine and the reputational risk it carries for regional partners. China's economic presence, channelled primarily through the Belt and Road Initiative (which surpassed $1 trillion in cumulative engagement in 2023), remains dominant but is increasingly met with public resistance and concerns about debt dependency. This creates a genuine opening for European investors and advisors who can position themselves as a credible "third force": bringing technology, governance standards, and long-term partnership rather than geopolitical strings. The EU's **Middle Corridor** — the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route connecting China and Europe while bypassing Russia — is gaining strategic importance, and Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are actively positioning themselves as its key nodes. For cross-border M&A and capital raising, this geopolitical moment is particularly significant. Chinese outbound M&A reached a **seven-year high in 2025**, with overseas acquisitions totalling $43.6 billion — up nearly 40% year-on-year — much of it focused on energy and technology assets. European capital, by contrast, brings different advantages: regulatory alignment, ESG credibility, and access to EU financing instruments that Chinese capital cannot replicate. ## Where the Opportunities Are Concentrated Three investment themes stand out as particularly compelling for 2025–2026: **Renewable energy generation and grid infrastructure.** Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan have the greatest potential for solar, wind, and geothermal development in the region. The ECFR estimates that Central Asia could become a significant hydrogen exporter to Europe by the mid-2030s, but the immediate opportunity lies in utility-scale solar and wind, where project economics are already attractive and offtake agreements with state utilities are increasingly available. **Critical raw materials.** Central Asia holds significant reserves of lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and other materials essential to the clean energy transition. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act has created strong institutional demand for supply chain diversification away from China, and Central Asian governments are actively seeking European partners for extraction, processing, and export. **Technology transfer and industrial decarbonisation.** Belgium's industrial sector is itself undergoing a profound transformation: the European Commission approved **€260 million in Belgian state aid** in March 2026 for cross-border carbon capture and storage infrastructure. Belgian and broader European clean technology companies — in areas ranging from green hydrogen to industrial heat pumps — are well positioned to find markets along the Silk Road, where industrialisation and decarbonisation are happening simultaneously. ## Navigating the Complexity None of this is straightforward. Legal frameworks in Central Asia remain works in progress; infrastructure constraints are real; water scarcity creates tensions between hydropower and agriculture; and the regulatory distance between Brussels and Tashkent is considerable. Currency risk, political risk, and the challenge of finding reliable local partners are all genuine considerations for investors approaching the region for the first time. This is precisely where specialist advisory support becomes indispensable. The ability to bridge cultural, regulatory, and commercial contexts — to speak the language of both a Belgian institutional investor and a Kazakhstani state-owned enterprise — is not a commodity skill. It requires deep regional knowledge, established networks, and the patience to build relationships across very different business cultures. ## Looking Ahead The trajectory is clear. The Silk Road economies are integrating into global clean energy supply chains at an accelerating pace, driven by geopolitical diversification, domestic decarbonisation commitments, and the sheer scale of renewable resource endowments. For investors and companies with the right partners and the right approach, the window of opportunity is open — and the first movers will define the landscape for a generation. At Silk Road Partners, we believe that the net zero-emission transition along the Silk Road is not merely an environmental imperative but a generational investment opportunity. We look forward to continuing this conversation with our clients and partners across Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. --- *This article draws on data from BloombergNEF's Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 report, the European Council on Foreign Relations' January 2026 policy brief on EU-Central Asia energy cooperation, EBRD investment announcements, and the World Resources Institute's State of Clean Energy 2025 analysis.*